Numbering 43 million households, renters comprise roughly a third of the current eligible voting … [+]
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With a third of Democratic delegates casting their vote today, Super Tuesday is set to hopefully provide voters with some clarity in a primary that has notably been devoid of it.
With the remaining candidates pulling together every coalition of voters they can in efforts to rise to the top of the party, voting blocs are more powerful than ever. And one of these cohorts may prove to be among the most important of all: renters.
Numbering 43 million households, renters comprise roughly a third of the current eligible voting population—a higher share than at any point in the last 50 years. According to a recent study by Apartment List, this has lead many key renter issues to be a major consideration at the polls.
“The issues of renters seems to be at a high point,” says Igor Popov, chief economist at Apartment List. “Housing is just on people’s minds before they go to the voting booth.”
Indeed, with 50% of middle-income renters now considered “cost-burdened” (paying more than a third of their income to housing), it’s unsurprising to see the financial pressures of being a renter translate into political action. Last year, voters in California approved a nationwide measure to cap rent increases at 5% after inflation, and Washington, D.C. formed its first tenant’s union. On the national level, a recent survey by affordable housing campaign, “Opportunity Starts at Home,” found that 76% of voters were more likely to vote for a candidate if he or she had a detailed housing affordability plan.
All of which has not gone unnoticed by Democrat candidates. Of the original 27 candidates declaring for presidency, 13 outlined concrete policies on affordable housing—including all major candidates except Joe Biden. Notably Pete Buttigieg proposed investing $430 billion in affordable housing, Amy Klobuchar proposed expanding the Low Income Housing Tax Credit, and Bernie Sanders’ “housing for all” plan would cap rent increases at 3% annually.
Whatever the proposed solution, one thing is clear: Renters are struggling—and politicians are recognizing the opportunity.
“I think that when we look back to things like the last few presidential debates—whether we’re talking Clinton/Trump or Romney/Obama—housing wasn’t brought up basically at all,” says Popov. “Now, everyone’s coming with their housing plan…and has a plan to address affordability concerns.”
However, winning the renter vote may not be as simple as addressing housing alone. As the Democratic primary appears to increasingly be a referendum on whether the party should lean progressive or moderate, it’s worth noting that renters are markedly more progressive on a number of issues than their home-owning counterparts.
According to the earlier report by Apartment List, Democratic renters favor progressive initiatives such as increased federal aid to the poor by as much as 13% more than Democratic homeowners . Similarly, they believe more strongly in federal spending on child care, and attitudinal questions like “the government should provide more services.” These differences become even more pronounced when comparing homeowners and renters who classify themselves as independent.
Given this data, it may be unsurprising that renters favored Bernie Sanders in the 2016 primary, where they voted for him 46% over 34% for Hillary Clinton. While it’s too early to draw any conclusive insight from the 2020 contests, it appears Sanders is leading with many groups known to overlap with renters—notably young and low-income voters.
Yet despite their political potential, the big question for renters remains not who they will vote for, but if they will vote at all. With traditionally low turnout, only 49% of eligible renters cast a vote in the 2016 election, compared with 67% of homeowners—a difference large enough to change the presidency.
“If renters had turned out at the same rate that their home-owning counterparts had, Clinton would have won in a electoral landslide,” says Popov. “Basically, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin would have flipped.”
While the electoral difference is likely not as extreme in primary voting, renters could play a pivotal role in many of today’s tightly contested races. Notably, renters constitute a majority of residents in key cities like Cleveland, Detroit, Minneapolis and Tampa.
How exactly the renter vote will play out, only time will tell. For now, all attention—renter or otherwise—will be keenly focused on today’s results.