Real House Prices Down 3% in Seattle, 1% in San Francisco, And Slightly in New York And Los Angeles

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In the 12 months from June 2018 to June 2019, the real, inflation-adjusted prices of houses in Seattle fell 3% and in San Francisco, they fell 1%.

Real house prices also fell slightly in New York, Los Angeles, Chicago and San Diego, according to my analysis of the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index data released today. Their index is a 3-month moving average so what they call "June" is really the April-June average.

The hottest markets in the last 12 months have been Phoenix and Las Vegas which is interesting because they’re right next door to the cooling West Coast metros. Will whatever is cooling the West Coast markets spread to Vegas and Phoenix next?

Seattle was by far the hottest real estate market in 2017 but now it’s by far the coolest of the 20 metros followed by the Case-Shiller Index.

If we don’t adjust for inflation, Seattle is the only metro where house prices actually fell but house price increases have slowed significantly in the last 12 months compared to the previous 12 months in 19 of the 20 metros covered by Case-Shiller.

Nationally, house price appreciation was cut in half&nbsp;— from 6% appreciation from June 2017 to June 2018 to 3% appreciation from June 2018 to June 2019.

Late last month, the Federal Reserve cut the fed funds rate by 0.25% and 30-year fixed mortgage rates have fallen since then which should help strengthen house prices.

On the other hand, those 30-year fixed rates have been falling pretty consistently since last November and that didn’t stop the spring slowdown in price increases. Nevertheless, it can take some time for mortgages rate changes to work their way through to have an impact on house sales and prices.

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In the 12 months from June 2018 to June 2019, the real, inflation-adjusted prices of houses in Seattle fell 3% and in San Francisco, they fell 1%.

Real house prices also fell slightly in New York, Los Angeles, Chicago and San Diego, according to my analysis of the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index data released today. Their index is a 3-month moving average so what they call “June” is really the April-June average.

The hottest markets in the last 12 months have been Phoenix and Las Vegas which is interesting because they’re right next door to the cooling West Coast metros. Will whatever is cooling the West Coast markets spread to Vegas and Phoenix next?

Seattle was by far the hottest real estate market in 2017 but now it’s by far the coolest of the 20 metros followed by the Case-Shiller Index.

If we don’t adjust for inflation, Seattle is the only metro where house prices actually fell but house price increases have slowed significantly in the last 12 months compared to the previous 12 months in 19 of the 20 metros covered by Case-Shiller.

Nationally, house price appreciation was cut in half — from 6% appreciation from June 2017 to June 2018 to 3% appreciation from June 2018 to June 2019.

Late last month, the Federal Reserve cut the fed funds rate by 0.25% and 30-year fixed mortgage rates have fallen since then which should help strengthen house prices.

On the other hand, those 30-year fixed rates have been falling pretty consistently since last November and that didn’t stop the spring slowdown in price increases. Nevertheless, it can take some time for mortgages rate changes to work their way through to have an impact on house sales and prices.