Dr. Joshua Liao explains that under the pressure of time and uncertainty, people rarely act purely based on logic. Instead, humans tend to make choices in these situations using a set of mental shortcuts
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Most states have reached a pivotal moment, embarking on the path of returning their economies back to normal. Using a phased approach, officials have sanctioned the reopening of select business sectors and expressed their plans for other sectors to follow suit if infection rates remain flat or decline over time. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently affirmed this approach by outlining detailed guidance about data criteria and thresholds for “opening America up again” in three phases.
Recovery requires reliable data and strong public health data surveillance. But human behavior is rarely dictated purely by data. Ultimately it will be the psychology behind Americans’ behaviors that dictates how the country rebounds.
Human behavior has already drastically impacted the healthcare industry. Fears of contracting the virus in medical facilities have plummeted the use of emergency rooms, hospitals and clinics. I cared for patients in Washington state, one of the early epicenters of the pandemic, where hallways were eerily empty in preparation for projected surges, and several patients admitted for non-Covid reasons requested early discharge to avoid exposure to the virus. For hospitals and practices, recovery from this situation is far from certain. Many are furloughing or laying off employees, while others may be beyond saving even with federal financial relief efforts.
Behavioral dynamics are also at play on a larger scale. Widespread concerns about the virus may explain why residents in multiple states curtailed work, spending and travel far before their state officials issued formal stay-at-home orders. It is also why over half of Americans would still probably or definitely not engage in activities such as flying on planes or going to the movies, even if restrictions were lifted on the advice of public health officials.
That said, the psychology behind American behavior promises to be much more complex than just fear. People make decisions by weighing social and economic obligations, likely explaining why – in contrast to their unwillingness to engage leisure activities – Americans appear more willing to attend weddings and funerals if public health officials lift restrictions. Additionally, it is also likely why economic hardship has driven some to protest and defy stay-at-home orders, even if it is at the risk of personal and public health.
Though varied, these responses are not surprising to those of us who study human behavior. Under the pressure of time and uncertainty, people rarely act purely based on logic. Instead, humans tend to make choices in these situations using a set of mental shortcuts (called “heuristics” in behavioral and decision science) that are drawn from prior experiences. We use these cognitive strategies to quickly make decisions while minimizing stress.
This cognitive approach usually works well for humans, particularly in uncertain situations: choosing whether to drive or take the train to a business conference; deciding whether or not to invest in a time-limited opportunity; or determining a fair salary for negotiating with a prospective employer. Individuals are now facing a new, uncertain situation: choosing activities in the gradual recovery from a global pandemic. Prior experience, memory and mental rules-of-thumb can help people make good decisions.
But these tendencies can also work against us. News of a recent train wreck may cause a person to drive to the conference instead of train, despite the relative safety of trains and the known risks of car travel. Positive experiences investing in a particular sector may prompt a person to jump hastily into another seemingly similar, but riskier, investment. Anchoring too heavily on an initial salary target may undercut the productiveness of a negotiation and even harm a person’s job prospects.
And in a global pandemic, distorted perceptions about infection risks can lead Americans – leaders, business owners, employees, and the public alike – away from good decisions and behaviors. For leaders, that determines how they pace reopenings and communicate information to constituents. For business owners and employees, that determines how they about implement policies that preserve workplace productivity and safety. For all of us, that determines what activities that may result in under-engagement (e.g., avoidance even after restrictions are lifted) or over-engagement (e.g., premature rush to restricted activities).
It is no secret that humans can make poor decisions. But it is important to pay attention to the prevalent heuristics that cause us to do so – often in highly predictable ways. As states move to reopen, this recognition could mean the difference between a strategy that focuses on data (hoping that appropriate behavior follows), and one that anticipates and intervenes on faulty behavioral responses alongside data surveillance. What happens in the coming months and years may very well depend on which prevails.