Is Brexit really challenging the U.K. property market?

“Brexit impasse continues to challenge the market,” reads the latest RICS report. Déjà vu.

It’s been a familiar headline, practically since the referendum results were announced back in 2016. And in fairness, the sentence does have some truth.

Political uncertainty seems to have slightly tempered the activity of buyers and sellers: on the one hand, some sellers have been holding back, hoping to achieve a higher price post-Brexit. On the other hand, buyers have also been a little reluctant to purchase, nervous of prices dropping in the event of a no-deal.

But to put the blame for the challenging property market entirely, or even mostly, on Brexit, seems to be a little excessive.

There are two points to make here.

Brexit, or something else?

The first is that the ‘challenging market’ doesn’t have as much to do with Brexit as people might think. Issues in the sales market stretch right back to the 2008 crash and transaction haven’t picked up dramatically in the decade since.

In part, this slowdown comes as a result of new taxes, with significant increases in overall stamp duty, especially for foreign buyers.

In large part, it also relates to economic conditions and personal finances. Affordability remains low, particularly in the capital.

The average house price in London is a breath-taking £619,000 – almost three times what you might expect to pay in the East Midlands. House prices in the capital outstrip average earnings by 13 times, compared to seven times in England and Wales as a whole.

Unsurprisingly, the number of young people owning a home in England has fallen, and up to a third of ‘generation rent’ face a lifetime of renting.

Much of this owes to issues of supply, with housebuilding lagging year after year behind the government’s own recommended benchmarks.

Challenging, or steady?

The second point to make is that the market really isn’t as troubled as many commentators seem to suggest.

In the sales market, while activity in the south of England has slowed, price growth remains relatively high elsewhere, particularly in the North and Midlands.

Higher affordability in these regions, and in cities like Birmingham and Manchester, has attracted the attention of foreign investors and students, first-time buyers, and Londoners relocating.

Prices rose in Manchester, for example, more than anywhere else in the U.K. last year – increasing 6.6%.

Brexit impact

It’s easy to incorrectly analyse the decline in buyer appetite outlined in today’s RICS report. Brexit is, of course, having an impact, but nevertheless, buyers from all backgrounds – from foreign buyers to first time buyers – are continuing to snap up UK property, particularly in Northern cities like Manchester.

Brexit or no Brexit, the property world will keep spinning. People still have a requirement to move – whether that is finding a bigger home for growing families, downsizing in older age or buying their first home.

This post first appeared on Forbes.com. To see the original, click here.