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The great migration didn’t end with the Oregon Trail — in fact, it’s still happening today. Although covered wagons and oxen have been replaced by moving vans and airplanes (and the health risks of completing the journey no longer involve dysentery or having to shoot bison for supper), Americans today continue to seek new opportunities out West.
According to United Van Lines’ 2019 National Movers Study, which tracks customers’ migration patterns, Idaho was the top destination for movers last year, closely followed by Oregon. Washington also took a spot in the top five destinations. U.S. Census data from April 2010 to July 2019 shows the same migration pattern: Ignoring births and deaths, Oregon has grown by nearly 300,000 people, with Washington having grown by more than 570,000. For states with relatively low populations, that growth represents a significant boom.
It is more than the natural beauty of the mountains and oceans of the Pacific Northwest that drives this migration. Many of the migrants are retirees looking for low taxes, great scenery and a temperate climate. According to the United survey, baby boomers accounted for a huge number of moves to both the West and Southwest in 2019. Like in the days of old, the promise of prosperity is driving many of these 21st-century settlers toward Oregon. Continuous and diverse growth in job markets in western states means this region holds opportunities for migrants of all ages. Surprisingly enough, people who moved to Oregon overwhelmingly came to work, often for jobs that simply did not exist even a few years ago.
It’s understandable. Take, for example, my hometown of Bend, Oregon: It’s a small city with a large concentration of high-tech companies offering a variety of desirable jobs. Those migrating from elsewhere in the U.S. will find the average home price in Bend is about a third of what they’d pay in San Francisco, another highly desirable, high-tech Pacific Coast area. (In 2019, the average home price in Bend was about $445,000; in San Francisco, it was almost $1.3 million.)
In addition to more reasonable housing, the area boasts far-above-average job growth, something that did not happen by accident. After licking its wounds in the Great Recession of 2007-2009, Bend and Central Oregon built an economy that didn’t rely on timber or tourism, the previous mainstays of the economy. Through careful planning and execution, the region attracted and supported new businesses and industries and quickly expanded the reach of its regional airport. In my opinion, it would be fair to say that the Bend business environment of 2020 looks like an amalgamation of the tech of San Francisco with the outdoor apparel and products of Boulder, Colorado, and the biotech ecosystem of Boston.
The Milken Institute has named the Bend-Redmond metropolitan area as the best-performing small city in the U.S. for the past three years running. That’s based on topping the list for growth in salaries and wages over the past five years, as well as ranking second in overall job growth during the same time period.
Those of us who live here know the unique magic of being surrounded by national forests and being only a few hours’ drive from the ocean. But the ability to offer that and a healthy job market? That makes this version of the new West pretty unbeatable. However, it takes a self-determined community to make it happen. While this westward trend is as firmly in place as it was in 1836, western towns in beautiful places should not take this migration for granted. For those that wish to become diverse, stable and whole communities, a diverse job base must be intentionally cultivated over time.
The result of the Great Recession was a few years of real struggle for a town that lacked job and economy durability, and its citizens, newfound and generational alike, suffered the consequences. And while our new economy looks to be the envy of the nation, leaders are not taking this for granted, and Bend’s cooperative business ecosystem continues to forge forward, together with the local government.
As we collectively experience the early chapters of the COVID-19 economic and societal disruption, I am grateful for those leaders who helped build our robust community, which stands better prepared to support our citizens through challenging times. I encourage similar towns whose mountains and rivers attract newcomers to parlay that growth into a durable and diverse economy that lasts for years to come.