The Manhattan spring market looks to be nonexistent, with listing inventory falling more than 8% in … [+]
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The Manhattan real estate market was on its way to a rebound in the first quarter of 2020, with the number of sales jumping year over year after two straight quarterly declines.
Then, the coronavirus hit. With it, real estate agents’ hopes for a busy spring market were dashed.
The COVID-19 pandemic quickly ground the New York City real estate market to a halt in early March. While sales were up 13.5% to 2,407 over the same period last year, according to the report released today by Douglas Elliman Real Estate, this number is based on market activity at the beginning of the year, with a lag of two to three weeks.
Jonathan Miller, chief executive of Manhattan appraisal firm Miller Samuel, which produced the report in conjunction with Douglas Elliman, said the increase in sales came with the median sale price slipping 1.4% to $1.06 million, with a wider spread between the asking and contract price for many transactions.
The figures that are more indicative of the COVID-19 effect comes with the listing inventory, which fell more than 8% in the first quarter for the first time since 2007, according to the report.
“Listing inventory always rises between the year end and the end of March,” Miller says. “Consumers, instead of putting their listings into the market, they’re holding off because of the uncertainty. I think that eliminates any expectations of a typical spring market.”
Miller said the real impact of the coronavirus will be felt in the second quarter. Until then, the results are similar to activity in the housing market before 9/11 and the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers  in 2008.
“In the short term, anything that happened prior to the event is meaningless,” Miller says. “They’re all based on negative milestones.”
It’s too soon to say if low interest rates and pent-up demand will turn things around months from now.
“The longer this lasts, the greater damage to the economy and therefore the housing market,” Miller says.