If home prices and mortgage rates continue their upward trends, more than 1 million American households could get priced out of the housing market.
According to new data from the National Association of Home Builders, a mere $1,000 increase in the nation’s median home price would price 127,650 households out of the market. If mortgage rates rise just 25 basis points — from 4.75% to 5%, for example — then another 1 million will be priced out as well.
Unfortunately, if recent trends are taken into account, these scenarios aren’t just possible, they’re downright probable.
Home prices have been on a steady uptick since 2012, rising 7.7% just last year alone, according to Zillow. Mortgage rates, aside from a small blip over the last few weeks, have also been on a tear, jumping more than 60 basis points across 2018.
Experts largely predict both numbers to continue rising in 2019, albeit at a slower clip.
Tendayi Kapfidze, chief economist at LendingTree, predicts home prices to jump about 3% this year and mortgage rates to reach as high as 5.5% — nearly 75 basis points higher than last week’s average of 4.74%, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Both predictions would mean more than 1 million Americans could no longer afford to buy a home.
At the state level, Texas would lose the most potential homebuyers with a $1,000 increase in median home price, making 11,152 residents no longer able to purchase a house. California and Ohio would lose 9,897 and 7,341 buyers, respectively.
Chicago would feel the most impact at the metro level, with just under 4,500 potential buyers priced out. Houston would lose the second-most buyers at 3,546.
This chart shows the states where the most buyers would be priced out with a $1,000 increase in median home price.Made with Datawrapper
This chart shows the cities where the most buyers would be priced out with a $1,000 increase in median home price.Made with Datawrapper