How Will 2019’s Luxury Market Perform? Study These Sales At The Very Top To Find Out.

As news continues to show a slight softening in real estate markets around the country all eyes are on the luxury market for 2019. Whatever happens at the top eventually impacts everyone else. So before spring selling season gets underway it is worth studying what has happened at the high end to predict where we are heading. Plus, with the news last week that the most expensive home sale ever for the U.S. took place in New York for $238 million by the same person who also purchased the most expensive home in London, a deeper look at the other properties that share the podium of most expensive sales in the country can illustrate the early warning signs of what is coming. 

 Many of the homes on the list started out at higher asking prices (interestingly, $70 million seems to be a popular initial asking price), but business savvy buyers managed to negotiate the sellers down by at least a few million. Sometimes much more. A number of them set records for their location and one of the most expensive sales of 2018 was a $48 million dollar teardown , according to data provided by Redfin. 

Most of these homes were publicly listed, so there’s always a few that were private sales and don’t make it on the list—of course the Playa Vista Isle in Florida that was asking $159 million and still broke a few records even though it only sold for $42.5 million at auction (the buyers were Andrew and Nancy Mack, former owners of Teavana which they sold to Starbucks for a reported $620 million). Or the $85 million dollar sale to billionaire Daryl Katz, the owner of the Edmonton Oilers franchise, who purchased the Malibu estate of real estate agent Kurt Rappaport with Westside Agency).

1. $110 million, Malibu 

For listings that made the Multiple Listing Services or major news outlets, let’s start at the top with the $110 million record breaker for Malibu that went to oil and gas executive Michael Smith. He purchased the 7-bed, 9-bath home from Hard Rock Cafe founder Peter Morton in April in an off-market deal. Given it set a record for Malibu, surpassing the Playboy Mansion that sold for $100 million, it was widely reported. However, he might soon be beat out by the newly-listed $125 million home not far away owned by NBC executive Ron Meyer.

2. $73.8 million, New York City

On the East Coast inventor and vacuum mogul James Dyson bought a penthouse in the Robert A.M. Stern designed building at 520 Park (see rendering above). The 54-story building has been selling some of the priciest sales in all of New York, but none bested the $73.8 million Dyson laid out for his 6 bed, 6 bath unit. Dyson makes the Forbes Billionaires list at #321. 

3. $68.8 million, Los Angeles

A little lower on the price ladder is the $68.8 million home in Los Angeles that used to belong to Paramount Pictures Chairman and CEO Brad Grey, who passed away in 2017 at the age of 59. The buyer was an LLC connected to billionaire Bruce Karsh, whom Forbes estimates as having a net worth of $2 billion. The home had been asking $77.5 million but quickly came down in price to find the right buyer. The home had previously belonged to Frank Sinatra, according to the Hollywood Reporter.

4. $66.25 million, Los Angeles

Elsewhere in LA is the home that used to belong to Danny Devito and Rhea Perlman, but was given a major overhaul to become a sleek James Bond-style hideaway. It came to market for $80 million, but Australian casino magnate James Packer bought the pad for $66.25 million. As previously reported, you can take a spin through the photos where every room looks as sleek as satin sheets on a king sized bed. James Packer is 9th on Forbes list of billionaires in Australia and is #527 overall with an estimated net worth of $3.3 billion.

As trends show, the homes on the list frequently saw discounts off their original asking prices. This is partly the nature of the expectations for negotiation in the upper brackets, but it is also reflective of the overall trends in the luxury homes during 2018.

“In terms of homes sold, the fourth quarter of 2018 was the weakest in two years for the luxury market. The volatile stock market and high mortgage interest rates that peaked in November are most likely to blame. The good news is the stock market has been more stable in the first weeks of 2019, and mortgage interest rates have come down as well.” Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin. For more intel on the luxury market, check out last quarter’s luxury report by Redfin.

5. $62 million, New York City

In the same building as James Dyson another unit went to billionaire Ken Moelis who purchased a 6 bed, 6 bath unit for $62 million. As Forbes previously reported, Moelis is adviser to Saudi Arabia’s public offering of national oil company Aramco. 

6. $59 million, New York City

In the Getty in West Chelsea private equity founder of Vista Capital Robert Smith (ranking #163 on Forbes Billionaires list) bought a duplex and the unit below to make a triplex overlooking the lovely High Line for $59 million. It was the highest price on record for Chelsea and one of the highest for Manhattan of all time. 

7. $56 million, Bel Air

Pictured above is the much-discussed property on the luxury-laden Nimes Road in Bel Air developed by Mohamid Hadid, which sold for $56 million. Not quite the original $85 million he was hoping for or the $63 million he lowered the price to before settling on $56 million.

8. $55 million, New York City

In New York’s most expensive neighborhood, Tribeca, a record was set with a $55 million dollar penthouse at the Robert A.M. Stern designed 70 Vestry. The 5 bed, 6.5 bath unit was originally asking $65 million and took a year to go from contract to closing, but nonetheless it set a record, according to the New York Post.

9. $53.9 million, New York City

Also in New York there’s a $53.9 million sale in the One57 building that was the highest priced resale of the year for the city, even though it didn’t garner its asking price of $70 million. The seller was Canadian billionaire Lawrence Stroll (#887 on Forbes Billionaires List). One57 is the second tallest residential building in New York City, after 432 Park (where Alex Rodriguez and Jennifer Lopez have listed their $17.5 million condo. See photos here). It took over fifteen years for the developers at Extell to assemble the air rights for the property. 

10. $48.8 million, Naples (Florida)

In Naples, Florida there is the tale of an undisclosed buyer that paid $48.8 million for this 10,000 square foot house. Not long after buying the property the new owners filed a demolition permit and had every last inch of the last carted off to the dump, according to the Naples Daily News. The photo above is what it used to look like inside. They plan to build an equally impressive new house on the land. 

11. $46.1 million, Kauai 

I’ll sneak an extra one on the list since one of the biggest stories of the year didn’t top the list in terms of price, but it did capture everyone’s attention over in Hawaii. Initially asking $70 million, making it the most expensive listing at the time for the state, the palatial Kauai compound follows a Balinese design of having connected pavilions under covered walkways to create the living quarters on the 15-acre estate. According to property records the home was in a trust affiliated with former co-CEO of MorganStanley’s Asia Pacific division, William H. Strong and wife Sandi. It sold for $46.1 million to an undisclosed buyer, which made it the most expensive sale on record for Hawaii—even besting the sale to Mark Zuckerberg of $45.3 million on the same island a few months earlier in 2018.

It seems the very top of the market managed to hold its own, but it didn’t reach as high as it could. 2019 will likely see more softening in the upper brackets which will eventually impact home sales in the price points below. There are no dire warnings, however, that should be a cause for concern. If anything, hold the course for 2019 while the market reaches an equilibrium and starts to climb once more.

Any other homes I should add to the list? Email me [email protected].

Follow me on Twitter @amydobsonRE

This post first appeared on Forbes.com. To see the original, click here.